
Goldman Sachs Forecasts 7-Point ROE Decline for Big Tech as AI Capex Outpaces Revenue
Goldman Sachs forecast a 7 percentage point average decline in Big Tech return on equity over the next year, warning AI infrastructure spending is outpacing revenue generation. The June 12 report targets Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, citing an 18-to-24-month lag between capital investment and revenue recognition. The S&P 500's 9% year-to-date return reflects market valuations that may not yet price in the compression ahead.

