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Source document· May 24, 2026

Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023

View original at nasdaq.com
Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023 Key Points Recent developments have pushed expectations for the 2027 COLA significantly higher…
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  • The CPI-W rose 3.9% year over year in April, driven by the ongoing war in Iran pushing oil prices higher

    60% confidence

  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now projected at 4.2%, up from prior expectations of 3.2%

    60% confidence

  • The 2027 COLA could be the highest since the 8.7% adjustment in 2023 and would rank as the third-largest COLA since 2009

    60% confidence

  • Business leaders expect inflation to average 3.7% over the next 12 months, based on the Cleveland Fed's quarterly executive survey

    60% confidence

  • CPI-U is forecast to climb 4.2% year over year

    60% confidence

  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now expected to come in at 3.9%, up from a prior forecast of 2.8%

    60% confidence

  • Prices for shelter, medical services, and food all increased about 3.2% year over year, exceeding the 2.8% COLA most beneficiaries received

    60% confidence

  • 62% of retirees say Social Security is a major source of revenue, the highest level recorded in the poll's 25-year history

    60% confidence

  • The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher oil prices will climb, with a knock-on effect on overall inflation rates

    60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source

Social Security Administration · market share62 percent_retirees_citing_as_major_income_source
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
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What we're seeing
Q4 2026 Clinical Catalyst Season: Big-Pharma Data Flow, Regulatory Milestones, and a Thin AI-Drug Fringe
October 2026 conferences (EASD, IGCS, NACFC, HFSA) are producing a dense run of late-stage readouts from Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Roche, Bayer, Vertex and Galderma. Regulatory milestones are scheduled behind them: the ivonescimab BLA PDUFA date on 2026-11-14, FDA acceptance of Roche's vamikibart BLA, and Scholar Rock's EMA resubmission. The AI-and-finance angle is peripheral. It consists of the AI-designed drug Rentosertib and QAIAx, a speculative microcap whose trial claims (the QIII pilot, anticipated 2027-01-01, and a patent update) are forecasts and filings rather than data, so they warrant skepticism.
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EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
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Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
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