Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver, oil slides as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals
View original at finance.yahoo.comStock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver, oil slides as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals US stocks wavered to open Tuesday's trading session as investors weighed President Trump's hint at a fast end to the Iran war, which sent oil prices sliding and raised hopes of limited economic fallout from the conflict…
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A supply shock fattens the tails of policy distribution and puts larger risks on both hikes and cuts
60% confidenceThe US would not relent until Iran is defeated
60% confidenceIf the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, consequences will be catastrophic for the global economy
60% confidenceThe Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that much of the world supply has to travel through
60% confidenceWhen Russia invaded Ukraine, the u-rate was below 4%, core PCE inflation was over 5%, payrolls were running at 500k/month and consumers were flush with Covid stimulus cash. By contrast, we now have a soft labor market, moderately elevated inflation and more modest fiscal support. This sets us up for a more dovish Fed response if the oil shock is persistent
60% confidenceThe war is very complete, pretty much
60% confidenceExxon is focused on making sure people operating JVs in different countries have been safely evacuated
60% confidenceContext matters. Compared to 2022, the labor market isn't as hot, inflation isn't as high, and fiscal support isn't as large
60% confidenceExpecting a hawkish response from the Fed to rising oil prices could be a mistake
60% confidenceDemand for HPE products and solutions was strong, with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments
60% confidenceThe Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that much of the world supply has to travel through
60% confidenceThe US would not relent until Iran is defeated
60% confidenceSupply shocks create risks to both sides of the Fed's dual mandate
60% confidenceThe US is very far ahead of estimated timeline
60% confidenceAn oil tanker has exploded near Abu Dhabi
60% confidenceThe US hasn't won enough
60% confidenceIsrael's offensive is not done yet
60% confidenceWe now have a soft labor market, moderately elevated inflation and more modest fiscal support, setting us up for a more dovish Fed response if the oil shock is persistent
60% confidenceThe Iran conflict could end very soon
60% confidenceExpecting a hawkish response from the Fed to rising oil prices could be a mistake
60% confidenceIran war is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced
60% confidenceExxon is focused on making sure people in Middle East JV operations have been safely evacuated and remain safe
60% confidenceMarkets are global. Prices are connected. Exxon has a diversified set of supply sources to keep operations running and meet demand
60% confidenceThe US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran's naval and air capabilities
60% confidenceThe US is very far ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline for the Iran conflict
60% confidenceThe war is very complete, pretty much
60% confidenceDemand for HPE's products and solutions was strong, with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments
60% confidenceAramco can ramp up oil shipments in days not weeks once Strait of Hormuz normalizes
60% confidenceAll Aramco areas are safe and operating normally, with Ras Tanura starting up following precautionary shutdown after drone interception
60% confidenceThe US hasn't won enough and will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe's oil supply
60% confidence