SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime
View original at finance.yahoo.comSpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime SpaceX's Starship rocket 38 launches during the 11th test flight on October 13, 2025 as seen from South Padre Island in Texas…
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SpaceX IPO will likely be a sliver deal, only 5% of their company that's technically available
80% confidenceThe news that SpaceX may be considering various transactions with xAI and Tesla has caused a temporary pause in the market for SpaceX shares
80% confidencePrivate companies are staying private much longer now, with many companies that would be top 30 in the S&P 500 historically going public years earlier
80% confidenceMore market cap is now housed in the private markets
80% confidenceSpaceX has a business that is largely profitable and has dominance in their two key businesses
80% confidenceElon Musk famously said he wouldn't take SpaceX public until rockets were flying to Mars regularly
80% confidenceCompanies should open up private secondary capability as a great way to develop price discovery well in advance of the IPO
80% confidenceOpenAI and Anthropic are now over a trillion dollars of combined market cap, though three or four years ago they were valued much lower
80% confidenceLining up banks is a pretty big signal that SpaceX is serious about IPO, not just playing games
80% confidenceSpaceX will get a premium multiple well above what typical market rates would be, given the Elon halo effect
80% confidenceSpaceX could create a reset in the IPO market if it were to go public this year
80% confidenceLast year was Rainmaker's biggest year, trading over $1 billion worth of secondaries
80% confidenceSpaceX is already pricing well above where the last tender round was and getting closer to that trillion and a half that they had discussed as a potential IPO price
80% confidenceIf anyone can build data centers in space cooled by space and run by solar panels directly from the sun, Elon's probably the guy
80% confidenceJeff Bezos is going to launch a communication network to compete with Starlink
80% confidence