First Horizon signals 3–7% revenue growth for 2026 while maintaining flattish expense outlook

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• Loan and deposit trends were solid, and balance sheet profitability improved through better loan mix and pricing, disciplined control of deposit costs and tighter integration of deposits within client relationships

  80% confidence

• The #1 thing that concerns management is what happens with the Fed's balance sheet

  80% confidence

• Base case middle of revenue range is the current forward curve; exceeding that would put performance at the higher range

  80% confidence

• 2026 outlook includes year-over-year PPNR growth with mid-single-digit balance sheet growth and positive operating leverage, with total revenue expectations ranging from 3% to 7% growth year-over-year

  80% confidence

• Net charge-off expectation for 2026 is 15 to 25 basis points

  80% confidence

• Mortgage warehouse expected to pick up and C&I has hit inflection point for loan growth

  80% confidence

• Base case for expenses is in line with inflation, which would be 2.5% to 3% currently

  80% confidence

• First Horizon bought back just under $335 million of common shares in Q4, bringing full year total to $894 million, and announced a new repurchase program of $1.2 billion

  80% confidence

• First Horizon will participate in buybacks when appropriate

  80% confidence

• Period-end deposit balances increased by $2 billion compared to prior quarter, and the average rate paid on interest-bearing deposits decreased to 2.53% from 2.78% in Q3

  80% confidence

• In 2025, First Horizon returned just under $900 million of capital in stock repurchases and just over $300 million in dividends

  80% confidence

• CET1 target is set to fluctuate between 10.5% and 10.75% with loan growth throughout the year

  80% confidence

• If gain on sale can get back up to more normalized resale activity, it would support revenue growth

  80% confidence

• First Horizon still sees $100 million in additional opportunity and expects to make significant progress on that in 2026 and 2027

  80% confidence

• 2026 expense outlook remains flattish with the exception of incremental incentive expenses associated with higher countercyclical revenue

  80% confidence

• Momentum in non-cost resolutions is why First Horizon has been able to have other reserve releases

  80% confidence

• Deposit growth initiatives are underway, primarily the new treasury management system, with great momentum in treasury management in the back half of the year

  80% confidence

• First Horizon is optimistic about ability to improve profitability and continue to grow earnings in 2026

  80% confidence

• First Horizon has a very well-balanced business model with countercyclical businesses

  80% confidence

• First Horizon has hit sustained ROTCE number on a go-forward basis

  80% confidence

• First Horizon instilled strategic plan into a 5-page framework to provide clarity for associates about how to differentiate in the marketplace and create broad, deep, long-lasting client relationships

  80% confidence

• First Horizon made significant progress in delivering value for clients, associates and shareholders, with increased pre-provision net revenue and return on tangible common equity reaching 15% in the back half of 2025

  80% confidence

• M&A is not a priority; priority is delivering higher returns, increased profitability and leveraging the franchise and footprint

  80% confidence

• First Horizon ended the year with a strong fourth quarter including EPS of $0.52, net interest margin of 3.51% and 2% loan growth

  80% confidence